LEDGER

Frontier dates

Dated deadlines, milestones and the author's bets, each backed by a source. No predictions without a source.

26 dates, updated

By status

  • 26 pending
  • 0 held
  • 0 slipped
  • 0 resolved
  • 0 withdrawn

By type

  • 7 deadline
  • 9 milestone
  • 10 bet

2026

  1. The ECHA committees hand their PFAS opinions to the Commission

    from the banned shelf

  2. CHNU-B3: by the end of 2026, the EPA extension rule leaves the TCE open-top vapour degreasing prohibition in force

    from clean has no unit

  3. Interlune's Crescent Moon camera flies on Astrobotic's Griffin-1 lander

    from the warhead dividend

  4. China's suspension of the materials clause of its 3 December 2024 decree ends

    from the banned shelf

  5. TCE disposal to wastewater by processors becomes prohibited (EPA compliance date)

    from clean has no unit

2027

  1. ISO 14644-9:2022 and ISO 14644-10:2022 reach their five-year systematic review

    from clean has no unit

  2. The RoHS exemption for lead in glass and ceramic components expires

    from the banned shelf

  3. The Commission adopts the universal PFAS restriction, not before the third quarter of 2027

    from the banned shelf

  4. Russia's helium export controls expire or are renewed

    from the warhead dividend

2028

  1. B3: if Orion runs on deuterium and helium-3 for its 2028 Microsoft commitment, Helion sells surplus helium-3 before a full year of electricity

    from the warhead dividend

  2. Helion's Orion plant meets its Microsoft delivery deadline

    from the warhead dividend

  3. Interlune's first deliveries to Bluefors fall due

    from the warhead dividend

  4. Interlune NASA-funded helium-3 extraction payload ready for launch

    from the warhead dividend

  5. TCE as a processing aid in nuclear fuel manufacture becomes prohibited (EPA compliance date)

    from clean has no unit

  6. CHNU-B4: by the end of 2028, a qubit foundry or substrate supplier publishes an oxide-thickness acceptance in nm read by XPS

    from clean has no unit

  7. CHNU-B1: by the end of 2028, a private fusion company publishes a supplier cleanliness specification with a numeric acceptance

    from clean has no unit

2029

  1. The universal PFAS restriction starts to apply, not before 2029

    from the banned shelf

2030

  1. B4: real quantum-driven demand stays below ten thousand liters a year through 2030

    from the warhead dividend

  2. B1: on 1 January 2030, more than ninety percent of commercially sold helium-3 still traces to tritium decay

    from the warhead dividend

  3. CHNU-B2: by the end of 2030, no big-science vacuum handbook cites the surface grades of ISO 14644-10

    from clean has no unit

2031

  1. Ras Laffan window closes

    from the warhead dividend

  2. Black Moon Energy's robotic lunar delineation mission is due within five years of August 2026

    from the warhead dividend

2035

  1. A3: diamond disk capacity becomes the schedule-limiting item of a major electron-cyclotron heating program before 2035

    from the banned shelf

2037

  1. The Interlune to Bluefors delivery window closes

    from the warhead dividend

2040

  1. A2: printed monolithic bodies remove most brazed joints from production tubes by 2040

    from the banned shelf

  2. A1: the first mainstream tube family to abandon the thermionic dispenser does it over barium supply and compliance, lifetime parity unproven

    from the banned shelf

Data CC BY 4.0, Mean Free Path, Pierre F. Ribault. dates.json, manifest.json. Generated from migration 0077.

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