LEDGER

Frontier dates

Dated deadlines, milestones and the author's bets, each backed by a source. No predictions without a source.

16 dates, updated

By status

  • 16 pending
  • 0 held
  • 0 slipped
  • 0 resolved
  • 0 withdrawn

By type

  • 5 deadline
  • 5 milestone
  • 6 bet

2026

  1. · milestone · pending

    The ECHA committees hand their PFAS opinions to the Commission

    from the banned shelf

  2. · derived · milestone · pending

    Interlune's Crescent Moon camera flies on Astrobotic's Griffin-1 lander

    from the warhead dividend

  3. · deadline · pending

    China's suspension of the materials clause of its 3 December 2024 decree ends

    from the banned shelf

2027

  1. · deadline · pending

    The RoHS exemption for lead in glass and ceramic components expires

    from the banned shelf

  2. · deadline · pending

    Russia's helium export controls expire or are renewed

    from the warhead dividend

2028

  1. · bet · pending · bet B3

    B3: if Orion runs on deuterium and helium-3 for its 2028 Microsoft commitment, Helion sells surplus helium-3 before a full year of electricity

    from the warhead dividend

  2. · deadline · pending

    Helion's Orion plant meets its Microsoft delivery deadline

    from the warhead dividend

  3. · deadline · pending

    Interlune's first deliveries to Bluefors fall due

    from the warhead dividend

2029

  1. · milestone · pending

    The universal PFAS restriction starts to apply, not before 2029

    from the banned shelf

2030

  1. · bet · pending · bet B4

    B4: real quantum-driven demand stays below ten thousand liters a year through 2030

    from the warhead dividend

  2. · bet · pending · bet B1

    B1: on 1 January 2030, more than ninety percent of commercially sold helium-3 still traces to tritium decay

    from the warhead dividend

2031

  1. · derived · milestone · pending

    Ras Laffan window closes

    from the warhead dividend

2035

  1. · bet · pending · bet A3

    A3: diamond disk capacity becomes the schedule-limiting item of a major electron-cyclotron heating program before 2035

    from the banned shelf

2037

  1. · milestone · pending

    The Interlune to Bluefors delivery window closes

    from the warhead dividend

2040

  1. · bet · pending · bet A2

    A2: printed monolithic bodies remove most brazed joints from production tubes by 2040

    from the banned shelf

  2. · bet · pending · bet A1

    A1: the first mainstream tube family to abandon the thermionic dispenser does it over barium supply and compliance, lifetime parity unproven

    from the banned shelf

Data CC BY 4.0, Mean Free Path, Pierre F. Ribault. dates.json, manifest.json. Generated from migration 0034.

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